Receipt summary — not a verdict

This member's profile: NONE — 0.0% of PAC dollars from tagged committees. Correlation ≠ causation — the filings are still real.

John J. McGuire III

Rep. VA-5

Principal committee C00856831 · Schedule A →

NONE

PAC dependency

0.0%

Share of PAC dollars from tagged committees (2024 cycle).

Tagged / total PAC

$0 / $5,207,770

Numerator and denominator for the dependency ratio — every line links to FEC.

Peer context

More PAC-dependent on tagged committees than 7% of House colleagues.

No tagged PAC contributions in this cycle.

Score rule: influence_formula_v1

Margin test 🍌

Tagged PAC $0 · 2024 general margin 65,335 votes

Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives →

No dated PAC transactions split across Oct 7, 2023 in this cycle.

Influence stack

Layer toggles

Default ON: direct PAC + documented IE. LDA and FARA live in separate sections — we never merge buckets.

Direct PACOn
Objective
FEC committee → candidate contributions (PAS2 bulk). Default ON.
LDA lobbying
Fuzzy match
Lobbying Disclosure Act filings — confidence-scored member links. Separate bucket.
Open →
FARA foreign gov
Separate tab
Foreign-agent registration spend — never merged with domestic PAC totals.
Open →

Share card

Screenshot-ready receipt — OG image at /share/M001239.png

Influence breakdown

PAC dependency0

Committee relevance (Israel/aid/arming)25

Influence Mixer

Argue with the formula like a drunk poli-sci major

Your priors move, the FEC filings don't.

Sliders re-weight the editorial composite for John J. McGuire III. The filings are fixed; your priors are adjustable — like Congress, but honest about it. Top-level split stays 55% electoral / 45% legislative.

Electoral — PAC dependencyElectoral — primary / IE pressureLegislative — pinned vote alignmentLegislative — committee / arms relevance

Live composite (monkey-adjusted)

NONE

Schedule A earmarked conduit (tagged PACs)

FEC bulk itcont earmarks via tagged committees (2024 cycle) — semi-objective bucket; never merged into PAC dependency %.

$1,250 · 2 sample lines indexed

$1,000 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$250 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC

LD-203 lobbyist conduit contributions

Registrant/lobbyist-hosted contributions to committees honoring this member — lda.gov LD-203 filings since 2023. Separate bucket from FEC Schedule A PAC receipts above.

$15,500 across 4 itemized lines · American Israel Public Affairs Committee

$5,000 · 2026-06-25 · American Israel Public Affairs CommitteeMRVAN FOR CONGRESSLD-203 filing →
$5,000 · 2026-04-27 · American Israel Public Affairs CommitteeMRVAN FOR CONGRESSLD-203 filing →
$5,000 · 2026-03-13 · American Israel Public Affairs CommitteeALASKANS FOR NICK BEGICHLD-203 filing →
$500 · 2023-03-20 · American Israel Public Affairs CommitteeDUTCH RUPPERSBERGER FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEELD-203 filing →

Severity is an editorial composite from public records.See the math →