Receipt summary — not a verdict

This member's profile: MODERATE — 0.5% of PAC dollars from tagged committees; 100% on pinned Israel/aid votes since 2024. Correlation ≠ causation — the filings are still real.

Mike Kelly

Rep. PA-16

Principal committee C00474189 · Schedule A →

MODERATE

PAC dependency

0.5%

Share of PAC dollars from tagged committees (2024 cycle).

Tagged / total PAC

$5,510 / $1,078,556

Numerator and denominator for the dependency ratio — every line links to FEC.

Peer context

More PAC-dependent on tagged committees than 31% of House colleagues.

Tagged committee	FEC ID	Amount	Source
American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC	C00797670	$5,510	Receipts · Committee

Score rule: influence_formula_v1

Margin test 🍌

Tagged PAC $5,510 · 2024 general margin 110,214 votes (0.05×)

Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives →

Post–Oct 7 delta

PAC dependency ratio before vs after 7 Oct 2023 (PAS2 transaction dates, 2024 cycle).

0.0%

Pre–Oct 7

0.7%

Post–Oct 7

+0.7pp

Change

Influence stack

Layer toggles

Default ON: direct PAC + documented IE. LDA and FARA live in separate sections — we never merge buckets.

Direct PACOn
Objective
FEC committee → candidate contributions (PAS2 bulk). Default ON.
LDA lobbying
Fuzzy match
Lobbying Disclosure Act filings — confidence-scored member links. Separate bucket.
Open →
FARA foreign gov
Separate tab
Foreign-agent registration spend — never merged with domestic PAC totals.
Open →

Share card

Screenshot-ready receipt — OG image at /share/K000376.png

Influence breakdown

PAC dependency1

Pinned vote alignment100

Influence Mixer

Argue with the formula like a drunk poli-sci major

Your priors move, the FEC filings don't.

Sliders re-weight the editorial composite for Mike Kelly. The filings are fixed; your priors are adjustable — like Congress, but honest about it. Top-level split stays 55% electoral / 45% legislative.

Electoral — PAC dependencyElectoral — primary / IE pressureLegislative — pinned vote alignmentLegislative — committee / arms relevance

Live composite (monkey-adjusted)

MODERATE

Schedule A earmarked conduit (tagged PACs)

FEC bulk itcont earmarks via tagged committees (2024 cycle) — semi-objective bucket; never merged into PAC dependency %.

$6,300 · 7 sample lines indexed

$3,300 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
$500 · American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC

Pinned votes

H.R. 815 Israel supplemental — HouseYeaRoll call →
NDAA FY2024 conference — HouseYeaRoll call →
H.R. 815 rule — HouseYeaRoll call →
Further Consolidated Approps — HouseYeaRoll call →

LDA — bills you voted on that registrants lobbied

Fuzzy overlap from lda.gov filing text — separate legal bucket from PAC $. Not LD-203 conduit data.

AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE lobbied on H.R. 815lda.gov →
J STREET lobbied on H.R. 815lda.gov →

Severity is an editorial composite from public records.See the math →